Can BTC break out of the negative feedback loop when bulls are willing to pay a premium again? The directional premium of perpetual contracts is calculated as the total amount of funding fees paid by long positions to short positions on all exchanges on a daily basis. By adding the 30 day moving average and 90 day standard deviation as measurement standards, we can judge how concentrated and willing to pay long leveraged funds are in the BTC perpetual contract market, or you can understand it as "depending on the strength of sentiment". Why are ETFs losing their purchasing power? ”As mentioned in the article, when the bullish sentiment, risk appetite, and willingness to leverage decrease synchronously, we are gradually entering a negative feedback loop, and to break this loop, the first step is to make the bullish willingness rebound. Related article links: https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2000370224990662802 (Figure 1) From several past cases (indicated by the red shaded area in the figure), it can be seen that when the "premium paid by bulls (green line)" is below "90-1 standard deviation (red line)", it is a time when market sentiment is extremely pessimistic; Subsequently, as macro factors change and confidence gradually recovers, the market begins to fluctuate, and the premium paid by bulls will gradually exceed the 30 day moving average (purple line). This is also the best proof that market sentiment has shifted from extreme panic to cautious bullish sentiment. It will help the market gradually detach from the 'death spiral', reducing the probability of sudden and deep drops in the short term. So, currently we see that the green line has gone from below the red line to above the purple line, which is a positive phenomenon. This indicates that the market has gone from almost everyone believing that BTC is about to replicate the deep bear trend after 2022, to at least some people now expressing their disapproval through actual trading behavior. This divergence brings "uncertainty" to 2026, that is, it may not completely follow the script of the bull to bear cycle of the past 4 years, at least there is still a game to be played. (Figure 2) We can clearly see the difference between the data from February to April 2022 (Figure 2) - as this period has been used by many people for engraving - and now: at that time, the premium paid by bulls was always below the 30 day moving average and 90 day standard deviation, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment. Even when the market rebounded, no one was willing to go long and there was no disagreement. Now that December is already halfway through, several macro events that have been closely watched by the market have been implemented. The most noteworthy thing to pay attention to next is how the new funding structure will affect prices after the expiration of the sky high volume option on December 26th and the market maker's unloading of hedging positions. If we can transition normally, then based on what we have seen, it is favorable for the January market, at least not one-sided. From the perspective of chip structure, when the low profit chips are sold out, the emotional recovery will promote the passive lock up of high profit chips, and the market will also have the opportunity to usher in a turning point! ---------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits