HIGER|Dec 19, 2025 15:58
Hai Ge observes daily on May 21, 2023:
Bitcoin just broke through 89000, but according to the current testing data, the situation is not very good.
Today, a total of 32 indicators were observed: 8 indicators showed bullish (4 fewer than yesterday), 13 indicators showed bearish, and 4 indicators showed uncertain. Among the key selling indicators, one is bullish, four are bearish, and two are uncertain.
The most important information today is that the dust has finally settled on the issue of the Japanese yen raising interest rates. The interest rate hike is 25bp, and the subsequent release of future expectations is relatively flexible. It is not a very firm statement on how much to raise interest rates, but a step-by-step approach. Although not obviously dovish, the landing of boots and the surge in USD/JPY indicate that the market is already optimistic about the issue of future Japanese yen interest rate hikes.
We have analyzed it multiple times before, so don't be afraid of this Japanese yen interest rate hike, because both in terms of contract holdings and exchange rate trends, the market has already digested this news in advance. This surge seems inevitable, and the emotional impact is the most direct.
Therefore, before the opening of the US stock market, Bitcoin rose slightly. After the opening of the US stock market, with the rise of the US stock market, Bitcoin pulled another wave. The overall situation is good, but don't get too excited too early. Below I have an analysis.
You see, in the case of a sharp increase, the bullish indicators actually decreased. Isn't it strange
1) The total amount of stablecoins and USDC exchange rate show that funds are still flowing out;
2) The stock of BTC exchange has increased to a certain extent, indicating that there may be short-term fluctuations;
3) The rebound of the DXY and 10Y yields in the US dollar index indicates that there is still a significant divergence towards the future;
4) In terms of emotional indicators, the US stock market is optimistic, but both institutional and retail investors in cryptocurrency are pessimistic.
Listing these aspects is not to create anxiety for everyone, but to express that the market has not yet emerged from the trend. But there are also optimistic factors that need to be specifically mentioned, such as:
1) The sharp rise of USD/JPY is almost surpassing its previous high, indicating that everyone is generally optimistic about the long-term depreciation of the Japanese yen relative to the US dollar. Therefore, there seems to be no need to worry too much about the withdrawal of yen arbitrage funds before;
2) The US Treasury suddenly surged again today, and the Federal Reserve continued to inject considerable liquidity into the market.
The market is still in a game, but the delayed rise always makes me a little more optimistic. I hope to wake up tomorrow and maintain it. Bulls need to prove themselves!
The above is the indicator situation and fundamental analysis monitored by Hai Ge for everyone today, hoping to be useful to everyone. I will also communicate with everyone via telegram: https://t.me/higerblock
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