Emotions are racing against time: BTC is standing at a critical point of structural restructuring I strongly agree with the statement in the Glassnode research report that 'time has now become the main source of market pressure'. BTC, which is currently in a loss making state, has risen to 6.7 million coins (7d sma), setting a record high for this cycle. As time goes by, as the frustration of these investors grows, a more pronounced bearish sentiment will emerge. I analyzed a viewpoint in three consecutive tweets on December 3rd: there are two key criteria to consider when triggering the "deep bear" trend - price and time. Due to the fact that BTC that have undergone turnover since June 30th this year are currently short-term loss making chips, based on time calculations, these STH chips with costs between $107000 and $125000 will passively become LTH chips in 3 months, which is Q1 2026. Therefore, there is a possibility of significant changes in LTH price sensitivity. (Figure 1) And now, we see that LTH price sensitivity (blue line) is rapidly catching up with STH price sensitivity (red line). Due to having more chips in their hands, LTH is more likely to trigger larger scale panic escapes when they are more sensitive to price fluctuations. The probability of further entering the deep bear market has increased significantly (please refer to the citation for specific explanation). A few days ago, we analyzed that before the expiration and exercise of the massive options on December 26th, due to the market maker's long gamma structure providing support and protection for the lower limit of the price, there is a high probability that there will not be significant volatility. After December 26th, the relevant hedging positions will be unloaded, the market structure will be restructured, and the original support level will temporarily become invalid. The new support level depends on the subsequent new funding structure. The formation of structure is jointly determined by all participants in the market (not predicted by a single big V or institution). When the market feels that it will fall below a certain level and funds place their defense zone at a lower position below, there is a high probability that it will fall below. For example, the wall of spot pending orders has been withdrawn, a large number of short orders have been suppressed, option market makers have switched to short gamma, and so on. This is essentially the power of emotions, transmitted to behavior, recognized by more people, thereby completely changing trends and prices. (Figure 2) Based on current data, BTC that is in circulation at a loss is held by STH at 15.29% and LTH at 11.76%; Although STH occupies more, the proportion of LTH is getting closer and closer. Once exceeded, it will greatly test the market's ability to withstand pressure. I have also marked two historical cases in Figure 2 where LTH's proportion of supply losses exceeded that of STH. You should be able to understand the meaning by looking at them yourself. (Figure 3) But fortunately, LTH should still be able to maintain calmness and restraint now. From the data in Figure 3, it can be seen that in the several declines in December, STH sold at a loss dominated the market. For example, on December 18th, STH achieved a loss of 67.82%, while LTH only achieved 11.88%. I just don't know if we can still maintain this level of determination and resilience when more and more LTH chips are losing money. Of course, one thing we cannot ignore is that the identity of LTH has undergone a fundamental change in this cycle. The participation of a large number of traditional institutions is themselves using BTC as a long-term (cross cycle) reserve, rather than for short-term price games. Anyway, Q1 of 2026 will be a season with significant uncertainty. Emotions are racing against time! If the macroeconomic policies and expectations of loose liquidity become more clear at that time, and market confidence is restored, then the chips held in high positions will instead become a form of "passive lock-in" assistance. On the contrary, there is a possibility of a deeper price dip. ---------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits