qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Dec 19, 2025 03:44
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The BOJ forecast indicates that real interest rates will remain at extremely low levels. If the economic and price trends align with expectations, and as the economy and prices improve, they will continue to raise policy rates. Even after the rate hike, the monetary environment remains loose to support the economy. In other words: there will be more rate hikes in the future, but the pace will be very gradual. The hikes won’t be aggressive or quickly shift to tightening but will proceed incrementally. Judging from the statement, it’s relatively dovish. Now let’s see what BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has to say this afternoon. Overall, this rate hike by the Bank of Japan seems to have gone smoothly. Earlier this month, I discussed this on https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1995698468506259794?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, predicting that the impact of this rate hike would not be significant. The key focus is on the USD/JPY exchange rate. If the USD/JPY rate doesn’t drop significantly, it means the unwinding of carry trades won’t be too severe. Previously, from the CFTC yen positioning data, as mentioned here https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1997846644126269750?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, the impact also doesn’t seem to be substantial.
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