This indicator is very interesting! It's just that the sample size is relatively small (only 5 times), which makes it easy to overfit; If including bear market oversold, the trajectory may be different. Of course, his premise is that the traditional 4-year cycle has been broken. Just like our 'three lines in one', with fewer samples (only 3 times), so I classify it as a metaphysical indicator 。 ------------------------------------------ Author's viewpoint: He believes that BTC is currently in a typical "oversold" phase (RSI index falling below 30), and has drawn an "average recovery path" for BTC prices based on historical data (similar situations in the past few times). The current price trend almost perfectly fits this historical average trajectory: starting from oversold points, it first oscillates to build a bottom (chop), and then gradually rebounds upwards. He emphasized that the traditional "4-year cycle" is actually driven not by halving, but by the refinancing cycle of public debt. After COVID, this cycle was postponed by one year, and now due to the extended debt maturity structure, the four-year cycle has officially died. According to his macro analysis (business cycle, financial conditions, global liquidity expectations), this bull market is likely to continue until 2026 rather than end soon. Because there are still a large amount of interest expenses worldwide that need to be monetized (printed money), which far exceeds GDP growth and will drive more liquidity into the market to support the rise of risky assets such as Bitcoin. But the formation of the bottom takes time and there will be many fluctuations. If the bull market is not over, this trajectory chart will still have reference value. ------------------------------------------ Principle of indicators The indicator he shared is based on the "oversold recovery trajectory" model of the relative strength index RSI. He selected several historical events in the past where Bitcoin's RSI fell below 30 (extremely oversold) (the post mentioned only 5 times, all in bull markets), aligned these events (t=0 is the moment when RSI fell below 30), calculated the average percentage change in BTC price since that day, and plotted a "composite average trajectory line". The current BTC price trend in the cycle is highly consistent with this historical average, so he believes that it may continue to follow in the future: after bottoming out, it will rise. This is a historical composite analysis, similar to the average performance statistics of specific events in the stock market (such as the stock market performance after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts). It is not predicting exact prices, but providing a probability reference: historically, prices have often recovered in this way, similar to oversold. However, the author also acknowledges that the indicators are not perfect (the sample is only 5 times, and they are all in the rising cycle), nor will they match exactly, but they are very useful as a reference tool.