Looking back at the last bull-to-bear cycle, can you make money by blindly shorting in a bear market? Here’s the conclusion: Bear markets are tough, whether you’re going long or short. - First of all, most people can’t predict a bear market in advance, so it’s hard to sell at the top. - Even seasoned Bitcoin OG whales who’ve been through multiple cycles sell gradually as prices rise—no one exits perfectly at the peak in one go. - Every cycle comes with various macro and narrative-driven illusions that make you think the bull market will continue, giving you false hope. Looking at the last bull-to-bear transition: Trends have inertia. The shift from bull to bear involves repeated tug-of-war, with months of choppy consolidation. By the time you realize it’s a bear market, there’s often a 30-40% rebound to mess with your head. In the last cycle, from January to March 2022, there was a 2-month rebound during consolidation, with one final push to $48k. Everyone thought the bull market was back, but the rebound ended abruptly. Even if you were holding long-term short positions, it was painful—let alone trying to short at the bottom. From March to June, $48k slid all the way down to $18k, and anyone trying to catch a rebound got wrecked. From June to August, there was another 40% rebound, with constant back-and-forth chop along the way, making both longs and shorts suffer. After that, it was endless consolidation until the ETF narrative started brewing and materialized. Only in October 2023 did a new cycle finally begin.