Phyrex|Dec 18, 2025 19:20
It is the the fourth day, and BTC has hit or will hit US $90000 in three days, and then returned to the vicinity of US $85000. Especially today, the US stock market rose well. The S&P and the NASDAQ almost recovered the decline of yesterday, but Bitcoin still remained around US $85000, and the investor sentiment was too bad.
If yesterday's decline in technology stocks was still caused by Oracle, which led to the decline in Bitcoin, then today it should be purely a matter of investor sentiment. At least from the data of ETFs, more investors have shifted from the cryptocurrency field to the US stock market. However, I still believe that the correlation between BTC and technology stocks is still relatively high in the overall trend. Even if there is a short-term deviation, it should return to positive.
Friday is the date for Japan to raise interest rates, and the US stock market has not shown any signs of hedging. As mentioned before, investors have fully anticipated this interest rate hike, and the actual result will not have too much impact on the market. I don't know if it is the American friends who are still worried. If Japan doesn't raise interest rates enough, it will be Christmas market. The low liquidity of Christmas is like a holiday, as long as there are no moths.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate is continuing to decrease, and investors have gradually become accustomed to BTC falling back to this price. This also indicates that investors who are panicking about the price drop have already left. Short term investors have also started to significantly decrease, and if this continues for a period of time, it will officially enter the garbage period.
Garbage time refers to BTC maintaining a small fluctuation every day. Although the fluctuation amplitude increases every few days, it still returns to the fluctuation range and remains within this range for a long time, resulting in a significant decline in trading volume. This garbage time has occurred in 2023 and 2024.
From now on, it seems like a bottoming out from before the garbage time, between $83000 and $88000. However, unlike in previous garbage times, investors who have been trapped at high levels are still very calm and have already lost more than $20000. However, these investors have not experienced panic selling and their chip structure is still very stable.
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