Goldman Sachs' investigation into some investors regarding 2026 and my personal interpretation According to a recent client survey by Goldman Sachs, investors are optimistic about the overall stock market entering 2026. 47% of respondents expressed a slight optimism about the S&P 500 index. And 14% of people expressed complete optimism. This optimism also extends to the US economy. 85% of respondents expect real GDP growth to reach 1.5% to 3.5% next year. The sentiment towards corporate bonds is more cautious, as most people expect credit spreads to widen. Respondents generally expect that the yield of treasury bond will decline, and they hold mixed views on AI investment. My interpretation: From a positive perspective, it is true that 61% of respondents believe that the S&P 500 will at least have an upward trend in 2026, which basically denies the possibility of investors entering a recession in 2026. However, it can be clearly seen that nearly half of the respondents do not believe that there will be a significant increase in 2026, which is likely due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and will not fully enter a loose phase. And there are also 25% of users who are completely bearish, which is not a large number. If we add up the nearly 15% of users who believe in maintaining neutrality, it can be said that nearly 40% of users are not very optimistic about the market in 2026. This indicates an important thing. The market consensus believes that 2026 may not be a "new bull market", but "avoiding recession". The core judgment of most institutions is that there is a high probability that the US economy will not experience a deep recession in 2026, but with the end of the high interest rate cycle and limited fiscal and monetary policy space, the upward potential of the index may be limited. This is also why the mainstream attitude of being bullish is focused on Slightly bullish rather than Bullish. It should be noted that Goldman Sachs' survey is aimed at its own clients, not a complete retail survey, and even represents the views of some institutions. Institutions are willing to stand on the bullish side, but are not willing to bet on aggressive positions for this. Overall, this survey does not reflect how good 2026 will be, but rather that institutions have gradually ruled out the possibility of the worst-case scenario in 2026. If combined with the 2026 midterm elections, there may be a wave of market trends by the end of 2026. This also means that the main contradiction in the market in the future is likely not whether the economy will have problems, but whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will bring better liquidity. If it is still in a liquidity constrained environment, how high can risky assets still provide returns. Speaking of which, the market generally denies a recession in 2026, but also does not believe that a new round of strong growth cycle will emerge. If understood in terms of Bitcoin, it means that BTC is more likely to maintain a high range of volatility without significant improvement in liquidity, occasionally driven by risk appetite or periodic liquidity changes to rise. However, in order to continue breaking through and firmly establish new highs, a clearer shift in monetary policy is still needed as support. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits