qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Dec 18, 2025 15:17
The inflation data is controversial, is US housing inflation declining? Tonight's November CPI in the United States is highly controversial, especially with a significant decrease in housing inflation. The Wall Street Journal's Nick also reposted a tweet from https://(x.com)/NiCkTimiraos/status/2001651964128416022? S=20 implies that the conclusion in the CPI report of the Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Labor that the average rent for two months is 0.06% and the office efficiency ratio is 0.135% is problematic. From a personal perspective, there is indeed a problem with this, perhaps the downward adjustment is too significant. But looking at other data sources can also prove that housing inflation in the United States has indeed decreased. It can be seen from two aspects: housing prices and rent: 1. Lennar, the second largest home builder in the United States, released its latest financial report on December 16th, showing that the average selling price of its new homes decreased by about 10% year-on-year, from around $430000 to about $386000. And it is expected that the average selling price will further decrease to $36500-$375000 in the next quarter. The core reason is that this is mainly due to the affordability challenges faced by the market (high interest rates, weak consumer confidence), and the company has stimulated sales by increasing incentive measures (such as mortgage rate buyouts, price adjustments, with incentives accounting for about 14%), leading to a decline in selling prices 2. Looking at the rent again 1) One of the largest apartment rental platforms in the United States, Apartments, released its multi family housing rental report for November 2025 at the beginning of the month, showing that nationwide rental growth remains negative. The average rent has dropped to $1706, marking the largest drop in November in 15 years. All regions experienced a decline, with the western region leading the decline by -0.4%. San Francisco's annual growth rate is 5.6%, while Austin has decreased by -4.7%. The supply pressure of high enterprises continues to affect rental growth, and the market performance facing excess supply is weak. 2) According to the latest National Rent Report released by another rental platform, Apartment List, on December 1st, the median rent for apartments in the United States is currently $1367, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year (compared to November 2024), and has shown slight negative growth for over two consecutive years. Meanwhile, the national median rent has decreased by approximately 5.1% to 5.2% compared to its peak in August 2022 (equivalent to a monthly decrease of approximately $75). This report points out that this decline is mainly due to the continued impact of the wave of multi unit apartment construction (although it has passed its peak, new supply is still high), coupled with a weak labor market leading to a slowdown in demand, resulting in a record high vacancy rate (7.2%).
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