Last night, the K-line on the pancake, without looking at its name, I thought it was a garbage knockoff that ran away! The truth of bear market: CZ and Maji are both losing money, do you still want to make money by trading? ETF clearly returned 457 million yuan, but CB showed a negative premium, there must be thunder to explode behind this! TL;DR BTC is like a stock market knockoff, first pull and then smash If the contract is sacrificed again, even the boss will lose Maji and CZ have not escaped the bear market Venezuela is not a core bearish factor AI weakness in US stock market drags down risk assets CB premium turns negative, the United States is smashing ETF return, main players showing differentiation Japan's interest rate hike is the biggest short-term variable Just looking at the trajectory of the pancake last night, covering up the coin name, I thought it was a highly controlled knockoff by some dog market, and it was also the kind of garbage knockoff that easily traps people after pulling a wave. This trend is really abnormal. The 8w7 was directly pulled to above 9w, and then dropped to 8w5 in a few minutes without looking at the data. The small partners who make contracts must have been sacrificed again. Brother Maji was cut again this time, and now everyone is questioning whether this kid is money laundering. He has lost tens of millions of dollars in the past few months. Maji, a big shot, has much more market information and data than ordinary people, but he did not release it in the contract market to keep his funds. This is enough to show that he wants to protect his funds through... How difficult it is to make money from trading, and furthermore, Aster has fallen below 0.7, CZ was also trapped by 30% when he bought it, indicating that this market is playing second tier, whether it is spot or contract, it is likely to only lose money. CZ, who can be considered the peak of the cryptocurrency circle, cannot withstand the market trend. It can only be said that now is a bear market. Don't really think about making money in a bear market. Keep your mouth shut and don't spend recklessly. Let's wait until winter is over honestly. In fact, there was no bad news last night, that is, Trump blocked Venezuelan crude oil and dispatched the largest fleet in South American history to encircle Venezuela, which led to the rise of oil prices, the rise of gold and the instability of geopolitics. But to say how bad this is, Venezuela is a small country, which is not enough to affect the market; Last night, it was mainly due to the weakening of the US stock market, especially related to engine AI. Oracle's billion dollar data center financing was blocked, Blue Owl's exit caused the stock to plummet by 5.4%, Nvidia to fall by nearly 4%, Tesla to fall by 4%, and now the market value of the entire market is not only technology stocks, but also cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, all of which have been affected by AI and have expanded. Therefore, if the overall market value of AI cannot stand firm, all risk assets may be affected by negative impacts. Therefore, theoretically speaking, Big Pie was going to follow the decline of the US stock market last night, but it happened to emerge from the first pull and then smash shipment market, which is very similar to being manipulated. After last night's market trend, Coinbase's positive premium turned into a negative premium. Now Big Pie's price on CB is about 20u cheaper than on Binance, so the main force controlling and smashing the market in this wave is the United States. It is highly likely to be an arbitrage trading activity by a certain dat company or ETF investor. However, the inflow of funds into the Da Bing ETF last night was very good, with $457 million in funds coming in, ending two consecutive days of capital outflows. The outflow in the first two days was still quite large, so this wave may not have much to do with the main force of the ETF. The most likely reason for the crash is that dat shipped out to repurchase stocks or left, but you should know that the main force of the market is still stable, Last week, the two giants of dat, mstr and bmnr, bought $1 billion and $300 million worth of goods respectively. Both have good financial reserves and financing capabilities, so this story is not over yet. dat mataplan, the second largest player in the market, is also raising funds to buy. On the ETF side, BlackRock received $110 million last night, and Fidelity received $390 million. These two are basically all of the ETF inflows last night, indicating that there is now a two-tier differentiation between ETF and dat. This is a good thing, washing out holders with insufficient ability. When liquidity returns to cryptocurrency, the coin price will rise even better. The competition for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman is still very intense. Last night, Waller came out to make a statement, saying that there is still room for 50-100BP interest rate cuts, but there is no need to act urgently, which means he will cut interest rates 2-5 times next year. Compared to Walsh's, this one can lower interest rates more and then shrink the balance sheet to control inflation, which is more hawkish in comparison. Hassett doesn't have to say that. He cries for the independence of the Federal Reserve every day, but Wall Street doesn't believe him, nor do we. The label of Trump's best friend will not be ignored because of what you said. After the goods came to power, the interest rate cuts of 100 and 200 are considered pretentious, and they may copy Bernanke's operation; Last night, Trump also reassured the market that the next chairman must be a super dovish and will soon announce the candidate. Last night, Trump also released the benefits of water release, saying that next year will be the largest water release year in the history of the United States, and each family will receive a cash tax rebate of $1w to $2w. Since the spring, and the future tariff plan is mature, the United States will exempt people from personal income tax. In addition, there are plans to send $1776 to the 1.45 million military account, echoing the Declaration of Independence; Bessent also added that the previously mentioned Trump account plan will also be implemented. This account will give $1000 to every newborn in the United States, based on an annualized 10% return rate of S&P. The 18-year-old account will reach $5800, and the retirement account will reach $600000. If the family follows the advice to increase investment, the 18-year-old account can reach $300000, and this plan can also make The number of people in the United States who do not own stocks has decreased from 38% to 0. Considering that Trump's support rate is dropping sharply now, if we don't take drastic measures, the mid-term elections next year will probably lose the control of the parliament, so the probability of these measures is very high. In short, the United States will release enough water next year, which will definitely be good for the currency market. What the market is most worried about now is that Japan will raise interest rates in the daytime tomorrow. The probability is almost 100% now, so the focus is whether there will be more disclosure of the follow-up path after the meeting. Now the market generally believes that the Bank of Japan needs to carefully balance multiple objectives: not only reserve policy space by implying that the interest rate is still below the neutral level (1% -2.5%), but also avoid too hawkish communication to push up the yield of treasury bond, or too dove led to excessive depreciation of the yen. At the same time, it also needs to coordinate the relationship with the incentive prone government. So the pace of interest rate hikes may be slow and not pre-set with a fixed route, which can be considered as this year's year-end test. Next week, as the US enters the Christmas market, the volatility is expected to weaken significantly.