Phyrex|12月 16, 2025 19:37
Guys, this is a great question! If we look at it from the perspective of interest rates:
$80 billion * 4% annualized = $3.2 billion annual revenue
$800 billion * 1% annualized = $8 billion annual revenue
Increasing the scale will definitely boost CRCL's absolute revenue, no doubt about it. But the biggest question is, how can USDC's scale grow from $80 billion to $800 billion?
Keep in mind that even USDT's scale is less than $190 billion right now, and USDT's use cases are several times more than USDC's—especially in gray markets, cross-border transactions, and payment channels. And how many of these use cases are actually related to "compliance"?
Additionally, for USDC, rate cuts don't directly reduce interest itself. One of the biggest impacts of rate cuts is accelerating USD liquidity. I can admit that USDC will increasingly resemble USD in the U.S., but anything USDC can do, USD can do too. And anything USDC can't do, USD can still do—it’s just a matter of efficiency.
So, achieving a 10x growth during a rate-cut cycle? I think that's going to be pretty tough.
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