Phyrex|Dec 16, 2025 16:56
This statement is actually not accurate, although it is very provocative. Because it cannot be simply judged that holding 100 to 1000 bitcoins is necessarily a whale, and it could also be an exchange, ETF institution, or custodian institution. Moreover, holding over 1000 BTC is not a whale, right?
So for the purchase of giant whales, my personal judgment is first to see whether the overall stock of the exchange is rising or falling, after all, the exchange is the largest "giant whale". Indeed, from the data, the stock of the exchange has been declining recently, and the stock of spot ETFs has also been declining.
So a preliminary judgment can be made that if the stock of high net worth investors is on the rise, it is very likely that the actual investor holdings have increased. So, how much has the increase been?
What I am looking at is the position changes in addresses with more than 100 Bitcoin holdings. In the past week, there has been an increase of about 8000 Bitcoin holdings, while the total stock on the exchange has decreased by about 36000. If all of this stock was bought by Whale, then the upper limit should be 44000, and spot ETFs have increased by 3124 this week. Therefore, the actual upper limit for Whale's increase in holdings may be around 41000 BTC.
This is still the upper limit. The actual data may be lower than this value. Of course, increasing holdings by 41000 pieces in a week is also good, and it definitely includes MSTR.
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