TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Dec 16, 2025 16:06
Americans should actually thank the previous government shutdown because it removed a key point for confirming the market trend. Everyone can fool themselves by saying: 'Maybe October wasn’t that bad? Maybe November just had a sudden jump?' If there hadn’t been a shutdown in October and the 4.5% unemployment rate was announced, the market would have realized in early November, 'Oh no, the trend is already forming, and Sam’s Law will definitely be triggered next month.' So, the government shutdown actually bought the Fed and the White House an extra month. It blurred the rapidly rising curve, turning what could have been a dangerous signal in October into an incalculable 'unknown.' If next month, when December’s data is released, the unemployment rate slightly rises to 4.7%, Sam’s Rule will be triggered. But I think Americans will definitely find a way to prevent this rule from being triggered.
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