I'm going to make up words again. Is it really a recession now? There is a bit of a "wave particle duality". From the perception of the people and the market, it seems that the US economy is already in some form of recession. But according to the official definition of 'technological decline', there is currently no decline. If we follow the authoritative definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) or the usual standard of 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth', the United States is indeed not in recession now. In the first quarter of 2025 (Q1), the US GDP did indeed shrink (about -0.5% after correction), which caused panic at the time. But in the following second quarter (Q2) and third quarter (Q3), GDP rebounded to a level of over 3%. The just announced November unemployment rate of 4.6% is just a little short of triggering the Sam's Rule, but ironically, Claudia Sam herself was still urgently refuting rumors last year, supporting the US economy not in recession and attempting to correct her own invented rule by explaining "labor supply side interference". So now the US economy is probably in a state of "Schr ö dinger's recession"