Phyrex|12月 16, 2025 15:39
According to the data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase in employment is mainly due to the rise in the number of "part-time" workers. More workers choose to increase their working hours or engage in multiple jobs at the same time to make up for the income gap because one wage cannot meet the current cost of living and expenditure needs. This does not mean that the job market is strengthening, but rather a passive response to being squeezed by high interest rates and high living costs.
Structurally, the growth of full-time positions has significantly slowed down, and companies have become more cautious in recruitment, but there have been no large-scale layoffs. Correspondingly, the number of part-time and multiple job positions continues to rise, reflecting that the quantity of employment is still there, but the quality is declining. These changes in employment structure often occur in the middle and later stages of economic slowdown, rather than in the stage of rapid economic expansion.
Therefore, this round of employment data does not support the judgment of economic re acceleration, and is closer to a state where income is eroded and labor supply is forced to increase. For the macro level, this situation helps alleviate inflationary pressures, but it will also gradually lower consumer willingness, causing the economy to slowly cool down in a high interest rate environment rather than suddenly falling into recession.
The speaker said that the current employment situation in the United States is not good, but it has not yet reached the point of economic recession. This is the ultimate tug of war between the market and the Federal Reserve. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in order to avoid recession, but what the Federal Reserve thinks is unknown.
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