TraderS | 缺德道人|Dec 16, 2025 14:56
Although the non farm payroll in November increased by 64000 slightly higher than expected, when combined with the (inaccurate) data from October, the US job market actually saw a net decrease of 41000 people in the past two months. And Powell has warned that official data may overestimate 60000 jobs per month. If we deduct this high valuation, the US private sector may have actually experienced negative growth for six months. In addition, the sharp increase of 909000 people forced to take part-time jobs due to economic reasons in November indicates that the employment situation is actually deteriorating.
Leaving aside the above, do you still remember that in August of this year, BLS had a downward revision of employment numbers for 2024, which triggered market panic and led to a sharp decline. Some institutions have predicted that the number of employed people this year, which is 2025, will be reduced by 900000 to 1 million next year.
Based on the above situation, today's employment data should have a strengthening effect on the expectation of interest rate cuts. However, when it comes to the specific response of segmented tracks, we still need to wait for further developments. Nevertheless, the relaxed environment is helpful for the risk market.
Bitcoin still plays the role of a harmless reservoir in the US dollar system. If the US does not want to allow excessive currency to flow into the real economy, nor does it want commodities, futures, and precious metals to rise, it will drive funds into the cryptocurrency market. However, it is clear that Wall Street currently intends to let precious metals rise first, so we can only patiently wait for the theme to turn back into the cryptocurrency market.
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