HTX DeepThink: The implementation of interest rate cuts is difficult to change the volatile market, and inflation may be a decisive blow Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that despite the Federal Reserve's timely interest rate cuts and the release of dovish signals that clearly exceeded market expectations in the dot matrix and policy wording, there has not been a consistent return of risk bias in the US financial market. On the contrary, the real challenges surrounding the field of artificial intelligence are having a sustained impact on market sentiment, including pressure to digest valuations, longer capital expenditure return cycles, and increased uncertainty in profit realization, which has led to a complex pattern of differentiation between US stocks and US bonds. From the reaction of the bond market, the overall long-term US bond yield has risen this week, with the 10-year US bond yield increasing by about 5 basis points during a typical "Fed rate cut week". This counterintuitive trend indicates that the market did not simply price the rate cut as the starting point for comprehensive easing, but rather re evaluated the supply pressure of US bonds under the background of inflation stickiness and fiscal deficit, as well as the marginal improvement effect of rate cuts on the real economy and corporate profits. From a pricing perspective, this is more like an early discount on the effectiveness of easing policies. The key to determining the direction of the market remains inflation data. The US November CPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate, as well as month on month data and initial jobless claims for the week, announced on Thursday evening, will become the core pricing anchor for the US dollar and risk assets. Against the backdrop of the current CPI remaining at around 3%, significantly above the 2% target, market attention has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "whether interest rate cuts are reasonable and sustainable". If CPI data is significantly lower than expected, it will further verify the rationality of the Federal Reserve's current shift towards easing, and the US dollar may face temporary downward pressure, while risk assets are expected to have some room for repair; On the contrary, if inflation performance becomes stronger again or shows stubborn characteristics, the market will re-examine the risk of "premature easing", the US dollar may rebound, and interest rate and stock market fluctuations will amplify accordingly. Overall, the Federal Reserve has completed its policy direction shift, but the market is still waiting for the verification of whether this shift can truly translate into improved growth and profit recovery. Against the backdrop of AI narrative cooling and long-term interest rate volatility, the market is more likely to repeatedly price around inflation data and policy expectations in the short term, rather than entering a clear unilateral trend market.