AB Kuai.Dong|Dec 16, 2025 04:21
Let’s talk about Japan’s interest rate hike.
Aside from confirming the upcoming interest rate change announcement on December 19, the market is more focused on whether the Bank of Japan will continue with consecutive rate hikes. Currently, the interest rate is at 0.5%, and even after the hike, it would only reach 0.75%.
However, based on previous discussions, to bring the interest rate back to a neutral range, the market speculates that this round of hikes might eventually reach 1.25%, which means betting on three consecutive rate hikes.
The last time Japan implemented consecutive rate hikes was from March 2024 to January 2025, lasting about 10 months. During that period, Japan moved from a negative interest rate of -0.1% to a final rate of 0.5%.
Japan is still facing high prices and inflation rates exceeding 2%, which have persisted for three years. The public continues to criticize the Bank of Japan for the slow pace of rate hikes, which hasn’t kept up with inflation. As a result, the actual borrowing cost remains very low.
Currently, the market is digesting fears of consecutive rate hikes following the initial hike, and December is also the time of North American Christmas + year-end holidays, which is the period of worst liquidity, causing significant market volatility.
This is just a reference, as many factors influence asset prices.
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