Why does BTC continue to decline under the consensus of 'positive outlook'? How to operate better to save life! Today's market continues to decline, with a sharp drop bringing BTC to the edge of 85000! This is a typical market misalignment period: the long-term narrative still holds, but short-term pricing is deteriorating. one ️⃣ What is the reason? At present, the typical outlook is positive, but the short-term situation is indeed not optimistic, We can understand BTC's recent decline as a combination of "deteriorating liquidity expectations+weak demand side+ETF outflows+deleveraging+low liquidity environment" at the same time. If there are two elements here that are good, I believe December should be an explosive month, but unfortunately the market is like this, constantly changing. What we need to do is accept and understand, rather than being stagnant! Against the backdrop of BOJ meetings, US employment/inflation data, and fluctuating ETF fund flows, the market trend should be more inclined towards the benchmark scenario of "high volatility, weak range oscillation"; Unless there is a continuous improvement in demand side (continuous net inflow of ETFs, sudden information favorable for interest rate cuts, and overall recovery of risk assets), it is difficult to quickly return to a unilateral upward trend. two ️⃣ How to operate? The following is purely my personal opinion, as everyone has different levels of tolerance for positions and investment structures. Therefore, it is only for reference and not for investment advice! 1) I suggest everyone do one thing first: write down the 'maximum tolerable drawdown for the next month'; Will I not be able to sleep if the book value drops to -20% in the next month? Will I be forced to cut flesh if I withdraw to -30%? Can I withstand the process of 'falling first and then rising'? This number determines whether you should reduce your holdings and by how much; Otherwise, any operation may turn into emotional trading. 2) Reduce the risk by one level in front of the event window, but do not perform a full clearance in a shuttle style Without adding leverage and with the first goal of "controlling drawdown in the next month", when observing one's own position, I believe it is reasonable to have a stable currency position of 30-40%, a mainstream currency position of around 50%, and a little other positions. Therefore, I suggest that everyone: Reduce the position from 80% Crypto to 60% -70% (prioritize reducing positions in other tokens, followed by a small reduction in BTC), increase the position in stablecoins to 30% -40%, and then use ETF fund flow conversion and stable price as replenishment conditions; If the situation continues to weaken after the incident, it will be downgraded by another level. In short, it means reducing positions without anxiety, and then patiently waiting and observing.