qinbafrank|12月 16, 2025 01:34
Why did Williams' speech last night have much less impact on the market compared to the one on the evening of November 21? Because the market's focus has shifted: back on November 19-21, the market had very high expectations that there would be no rate cuts in December. On the 21st, during the day, $BTC dropped sharply to just above 80,000, and market sentiment was very pessimistic. At that time, Williams came out and said there was still room for rate cuts in December, which was like a definitive statement that quickly turned market sentiment around.
Currently, the market's focus is more on this: last week, rates were already cut, but what happens next year depends on how labor and inflation data trends play out. This isn't something you can just talk about casually. If you say the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% and inflation will drop to 2.5%, then you can't just bluff about it—you need to see what the data actually shows. Is it really going to be as you say?
This creates a situation where, under different market conditions, the same speech from the Fed's third-in-command, aimed at supporting the market, can have vastly different impacts.
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