TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 15, 2025 18:35
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, they actually have no confidence in the quality of the data released this time. The survey time is longer than before, and they may have encountered some difficulties in disclosing information. The variance is also relatively large, and the data source may have been contaminated. This is equivalent to BLS throwing the blame in advance: 'If the data is not good, don't blame me. You can choose not to believe or accept it, after all, I have already said that the data quality is poor this time.'. So when the data is released tomorrow, if the unemployment rate soars, the market's first reaction will be 'the Federal Reserve is going to be more dovish', and BTC may instantly rise. But then the market realized that the data was caused by "variance" and may quickly fall back. On the contrary, if the data shows that employment is overheated, BTC may instantly fall and then repair. Because there are debuffs with inaccurate data, it may still be necessary to wait for CPI and the Bank of Japan's speech to determine the next direction. If CPI rebounds (higher than expected), coupled with the ambiguous attitude of the Federal Reserve in recent times (two rows of personnel speaking differently, frightening the chairman and changing), BTC may face real selling pressure and fall below key support. If BoJ takes a tough stance on Friday, it may also pose a downside risk to BTC.
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