PANews丨APP全面升级|Dec 15, 2025 09:43
After the sharp drop on October 11th, has the market really recovered?
From multiple key data points, it appears that the cryptocurrency market has entered a 'liquidity recession period' rather than the eve of a new round of rebound.
According to market data, the buying and selling depth of BTC perpetual has been continuously shrinking since October, with buying activity dropping from the previously common $200 million or above to the 100-200 million range, and the long short depth difference remaining at an extremely low level for a long time.
This means that it is not an optimistic mood, but rather that the market is disappearing.
At the same time, the holdings and trading volume of altcoin futures have shrunk synchronously, and the price decline has not triggered a buying frenzy, resulting in a clear lack of interest in the market.
The options market has released stronger signals. The proportion of BTC option holdings has approached 90%, far higher than the historical average, and market pricing power is clearly concentrated in institutions and hedge funds.
Although call options have an advantage in quantity, they are mostly distributed above $100000, more like low-cost "buying lottery tickets"; On the contrary, put options priced at $85000 and below absorbed about 75% of the funds. The high bearish premium does not reflect speculation, but rather the main force's defense against downside risks.
The flow of stablecoins also shows significant differentiation.
USDT exchange reserves have risen to historical highs, indicating that speculative funds are still on the sidelines; However, USDC reserves have significantly flowed out in the short term, and compliance agencies are actively reducing their risk exposure.
The divergence between the two outlines a structural split of "retail investors waiting to buy bottom while institutions accelerate their retreat".
Overall, the market after October 11th is not a bottom that is ready to take off, but more like a tug of war with constantly losing liquidity and institutions building walls for defense.
Compared to expecting a breakthrough of $100000, paying attention to whether $85000 is effectively held may be a more realistic observation focus.
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