gm365
gm365|12月 15, 2025 04:17
Dual currency investment: should one be willing to gamble and accept defeat? In theory, the 60 day summary of "dual currency investment" should have been written last week, but it has been delayed for a simple reason: Lost money That's right, the so-called "dual currency investment" (dual currency wealth management, dual currency win) is certainly not "capital preservation wealth management", let alone allowing you to "win both rises and falls". Once the "high selling" is triggered and the price reaches a certain level without repeatedly falling, it basically means a "loss on the currency basis" (the same applies to low buying triggered). For example, the yellow arrow on my screenshot indicates a 10% surge on December 2nd, which is the day when my "high sell" was exercised. Although I had already set a relatively conservative exercise price of+5.17% the day before, I was still thrown out of the car in the face of this sharp rise. You will encounter this kind of thing sooner or later. You cannot always set a maximum safety margin of around+10% (which means almost negligible returns). So, a more realistic question is: What should you do next if your dual currency wealth management is exercised? From my understanding, you have three options: one ️⃣ Recognize losses and buy back spot goods (such as ETH, BTC) on the spot two ️⃣ Hold stablecoins and start reverse trading with 'buy low' (sell put options) three ️⃣ Place a limit order on the spot platform (based on the average exercise price) and try to buy back the same amount of spot So the question is, how should we choose between these three options? Firstly, it should be noted that although Gemini recommended option one by default when we communicated early on, I am indeed reluctant to do so. I have tried the last two options myself, repeatedly jumping horizontally without success (I have never bought back the same amount of ETH). After serious communication with Gemini, I have now chosen option two and plan to execute it for the long term. By the way, based on our previous understanding, it seems that Deribit defaults to executing option one. If you are exercised as an option seller, you will directly transfer a portion of the spot. It is equivalent to forcing you to implement the "willing to gamble and accept defeat" plan. This also clearly tells you that 'being exercised' means actual losses But as humans, their psychological trait is' unwilling to accept losses', so they fantasize about buying back the same amount of spot goods at a certain price and time, even if the price drops sharply and they buy back more, perfectly achieving a wave operation. A 'love fantasy' physique that disregards reality is like quickly entering the abyss of losses. Because this kind of fantasy requires market cooperation, and the real market trend will not change at all because of your ideas. In theory, option sellers need to have this awareness: 1. Try not to be exercised 2. Once exercised (a rare event), continuous selling operations are required to compensate for previous losses In short, using long-term positive returns to smooth out occasional loss spikes. Of course, if you have your own (accurate) judgment on the short-term market trend, you can choose different strategies instead of having to choose which path. You can see screenshot 2 for details: Decision Matrix. In summary: This is a long-term game, and you need to maintain a calm mindset. Don't go against the market, and at the right time, be willing to take risks and accept losses, rather than fantasizing that the market will follow your wishes. Occasionally 'exercised' losses can be smoothed out through longer periods of daily positive earnings. Ensuring that you have a positive EV strategy is the confidence to stay at the table for the long term.
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