Recently, a new perspective has emerged on the age-old quantum computing problem: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's 100000 BTC be cracked and sold? Very interesting! The market always likes to enter the stage of 'risk pricing based on imagination' at some point. But what's even more interesting is that in the current history of Bitcoin, all the reasons for being sentenced to death have ultimately become evolutionary nodes. Many discussions start with the question: Can quantum technology crack BTC? How long? This issue itself is somewhat media oriented. A more authentic question would be: If quantum computing really becomes a real threat, will it appear suddenly or slowly approaching? The answer is the latter, and it is a very slow and highly engineered approximation. At the engineering level, the current level of human technology has fallen by more than an order of magnitude. So it's not like one day Bitcoin will be quantum black when you wake up, it's more likely that: A national laboratory → an academic breakthrough → a reproducible engineering validation → a small-scale experimental attack → the industry begins to respond That is to say, it is a threat that can be observed many years in advance, not a sudden black swan. This is very important and can directly refute the narrative of 'suddenly clearing Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet'. The reason is simple: The quantum machine that can truly attack ECDSA must be a national level resource, and the first thing it will do is definitely not to smash the price of Bitcoin; They are more concerned about military communications, intelligence systems, financial clearing, hostile countries' cryptographic systems How much market value do you have for Bitcoin? What is the difference between attacking cost-effectiveness and using nuclear bombs to bomb warehouses? So, if we have to set a time frame for quantum threats, I think—— In the next 5 years, it can almost be ignored; 5-15 years, can enter the stage that requires engineering preparation; After 15 years, it may become a system level decision variable. And even so, it's not quantum vs Bitcoin, but a quantum vs global cryptographic system that can extremely crack banks, military systems, and global communications. At that point, what you should be worried about is definitely not the price of BTC anymore!