Standing at the mid month point, looking at the market in the second half of the month, I said last Thursday that I would have a tough time. The logic is: if we combine last Friday's adjustment with the adjustment in early to late November in the US stock market, it may be a time for space adjustment, continuing to kill valuation and make a second move. This adjustment comes from: firstly, Oracle's financial report (lower than expected conversion of orders into revenue, significant consumption of free cash flow, and delayed delivery of data centers), which has raised concerns in the market about AI spending issues. Currently, the performance of downstream revenue will have to wait until the next quarter's financial report to confirm. However, Broadcom's personal performance was a mistake (the guidance outlook exceeded expectations, and the cumulative orders were slightly lower but also the lowest value, of course, the market is concerned that its production capacity has been fully utilized, which will affect the revenue growth rate in 26 years). Secondly, since the interest rate meeting at the beginning of the month, there have been too many major events this month, and the volatility will increase, so the market will naturally seek safety. Looking at this week and the second half of the month: 1) November economic data, with non farm payroll unemployment rate and inflation data released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The significance of this data is that bad data needs to be bad enough for the urban market to be good. This means that the best scenario is: new non farm payrolls should not exceed expectations, unemployment rates should rise, and inflation should ideally be lower than expected. The differences in the impact of these data on the market are as follows: Non farm farming is not bad, but it is not enough to trigger panic. But if inflation exceeds expectations, the market will panic. On the one hand, it will further suppress the loose expectations for next year. On the other hand, long-term bond yields may continue to rise. Another reason for the market adjustment last week was the rapid recovery of ten-year US bond yields, indicating that the market is concerned about inflation and future interest rate cuts, and needs higher premium compensation. 2) Friday's interest rate hike in Japan will have an impact, but it is estimated that the extent will not be significant. As of today, the US Japan exchange rate is still at a high level, and there is no sign of large-scale funds returning from the US dollar to the Japanese yen. Additionally, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is still rising. If funds are withdrawn from the Japanese yen and not in cash, most of them will be transferred to Japanese bonds. The highlight of the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on Friday is not this interest rate hike. But is it the outlook of the Bank of Japan on the future path of interest rate policy, when will the next increase be completed and where will the future endpoint interest rate be? My personal expectation is that there will be at most one or two more times after this, and the interval between them will be relatively long (once every six months or even longer). The interest rate of the Bank of Japan may need to pause and take a look when it reaches around 1%. The core logic is that the Bank of Japan wants to get rid of long-term negative interest rates and move towards interest rate normalization. The economic situation and the upcoming fiscal stimulus also mean that it is difficult for them to raise interest rates to particularly high levels. 3) The 11th subsidy for the Affordable Care Act has actually been voted on once, and both Democratic and Republican proposals have failed (the good thing is that the centrists have voted on both proposals). This week, the three and four houses of Congress will adjourn one after another. Let's see if the Speaker of the House of Representatives said there will be some progress this week. Based on personal observation, the market has already assumed that the congressional game has been postponed until January, and the impact may not be significant this month. But if the game continues until January, it will have a significant impact on the market, as the vote on the Affordable Care Act subsidy plan is related to whether the US government will continue to shut down after the end of January 26. 4) Supreme Court's ruling on whether tariffs are unconstitutional Previously, it was reported by the media this month, but it may also be postponed until early next year. If the ruling is illegal, Trump can also use other laws to implement industry tariffs, but still have to return some taxes, which will increase the financial pressure. Of course, it is good for enterprises, and lower commodity tariffs will help inflation. https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1990601897578041835? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A depends on whether the pressure from the Trump Supreme Court will work. If this week's events have had a significant impact, I can actually buy the dip. The turning point afterwards: 1) The reason is that the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman is officially announced, no matter who has a high probability or is biased towards Trump; 2) With the advancement of the Federal Reserve's RMP, there has indeed been a slow improvement in liquidity; The scale of bank reserve funds has started to rise; 3) According to historical patterns, there is a probability of over 70% for the late Christmas market. 4) In early January, some banks began to implement new regulations for early special SLR unbinding, which could partially dispel market concerns if it could drive down long-term bond yields; 5) More importantly, I think GPT 5.2 is worth paying attention to, although everyone has mixed opinions. But it can be seen that gpt5.2 is clearly going to focus on the To B end, as there is a strong demand for payment in the production work environment, which is clearly different from 5.1.