TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 14, 2025 07:04
After experiencing the volatility caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this week, there are still a few points that the market needs to pay attention to next week:
On Tuesday at 21:30, the big non farm payroll data will be released, which is the first timely macro data release in over two months. According to normal procedures, the big non farm payroll data will be released on the first Friday of each month. This time, in order to avoid another delay in the FOMC meeting, although it was delayed by two weeks, it is much better than the previous delay of two months. The significance of this data lies not in the numerical value itself, but in whether it can provide the first round of reality calibration for market sentiment after this week's interest rate cuts.
On Thursday at 21:30, the CPI data will be released, similar to the big non farm payroll data. This timely data can adjust the emotional tone caused by this week's interest rate cuts in a timely manner. As a core indicator of inflation, it will directly affect the market's reassessment of whether this round of interest rate cuts is premature.
On Friday, Japan is likely to raise interest rates, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference at 2:30 pm. However, due to the long anticipated hype, the market has basically digested the expectation of Japan's interest rate hike, and the landing of the boots may even turn negative into positive. What really needs attention is the expression of the subsequent policy path, rather than a single interest rate action.
4. Broadcom's significant pullback and rebound in US Treasury yields have put significant short-term pressure on the AI sector. The key to observe next week is not whether there will be an immediate rebound, but whether there are signs of emotional and valuation recovery, which will determine whether funds are willing to flow back again.
5. Silver reaches a historic high, while gold hovers around a historic high of $4382. This is a typical dual logic of hedging and anti inflation. The key is not direction judgment, but whether there is a risk of profit taking and volatility amplification in the short term.
6. As the end of the year approaches, fund managers face performance evaluation pressure, locking in annual profits and reducing portfolio volatility to beautify financial statements, which is a typical behavior pattern on Wall Street. If the macro data performs poorly next week, the risk appetite of funds may remain low for the next two weeks, leading to a decrease in market volatility.
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