大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only
大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only|Dec 13, 2025 14:02
The reason the market remains weak despite this rate cut is: 1. The rate cut itself is fine, but the dot plot shows only one rate cut next year, which is less than the market's expectation of three rate cuts next year. 2. The probability of the next rate cut has dropped to 55%. 3. Powell has raised the threshold for rate cuts to ensure the Fed's independence. The third point is very critical. The last time the rate cut threshold was raised was in December 2024, after which the Fed paused rate cuts and only resumed nine months later. This has caused some concern in the market.
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