Some people believe that the biggest problem with Polymarket as a prediction platform now is that a small number of people know "insider information" in advance, such as someone who knows in advance that the game "Light and Shadow" will win the "Best Game Award", so they place bets and make a big profit. Similarly, some people may know in advance who will become the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Time magazine's Person of the Year, or cut interest rates next time, taking advantage of the situation. So the real prediction of the market should be all events that no one can know or manipulate in advance. In fact, "Light and Shadow" is not a big insider news. This game swept 9 awards, including Best Game of the Year and Best Independent Game, setting a record. Before the award ceremony, its winning probability on Polymarket had already reached 93% -96%. Everyone thinks it's a sure win because the game has a huge reputation, the media is blowing it up, and players love to play. People who bet on it can't earn much (low odds), even if a small number of people have insider information, everyone has a chance to tell from public information. Its victory is' expected by the public ', not a sudden upset relying on insider information. This cannot be considered a very typical insider story. A typical insider story is that recently there was a person named AlphaRaccoon who bet on 23 related events on Google's "2025 Search Ranking", guessed 22 correctly, and earned over $1 million in 24 hours. Some people suspect that he is an insider of Google. There are also various award winners, well-known company product release dates, and other small events that often contain insider information. Polymarket is not like the stock market, which legally ignores "insider trading" (as regulated by US regulators). The platform itself says it is prohibited, but it cannot be found (anonymously using a wallet). From another perspective, some insider information may not be entirely bugs, but rather a unique feature of predicting the market. Because people with insider information place bets, it can make the platform's prices reflect the truth faster and improve overall accuracy (such as in the 2024 US election, Polymarket is much more accurate than polls). In fact, the bigger problems with Polymarket are: fake trading (self scrolling), big whales manipulating small markets, and controversial result judgments (using a system that is prone to cheating). Insider information is more of a niche event (internal company information, award leaks). Major events such as elections, interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve chairman are filled with information, and the advantage of insider information is much smaller (the Federal Reserve is strictly confidential, and interest rate cuts rely on publicly available economic data). What is the ideal prediction market like? Everyone has their own ideas, it's difficult to unify them. From the perspective of the real world, if 'no one can know or manipulate in advance', this is a very ideal state. In reality, predicting the market relies on everyone (including those who are a bit private) gathering information and guessing the future. Without any asymmetric information, there is no motivation to participate, and the platform's accuracy is also poor. If you really want to be super fair, you can only bet on purely random things (like throwing a coin), but then it becomes a pure bet on the market, rather than predicting the market. Some insider information allows a few people to take advantage, making the platform appear less fair. However, interestingly, even so, the strength of Polymarket lies in its ability to predict events more accurately than experts and polls (because money motivates people to speak the truth). There are both drawbacks and advantages. In the future, it may be possible to strictly control insider information, but completely eliminate it? It's hard.