大宇
大宇|12月 12, 2025 07:06
CRCL's Future is More Than Just a Spread Company Combining my previous multiple articles (visited) http://dayu.XYZ I have included CRCL in my article collection. Considering the recent mention by the SEC chairman of the US stock market going live within 2 years and the approval of DTCC, it should be widely accepted that USDC can reach a scale of 3-5 trillion US dollars. However: Is CRCL's business model always based on interest rate differentials? Although the answer seems obvious to me, as a series of popular science, I will still elaborate on it. First of all, the answer is: absolutely not! The size of USDC will become the largest stablecoin in the compliance era, surpassing non compliant stablecoins as the carrier of the second growth curve of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds. When these prerequisites are met, there is a high probability that several sectors of returns will experience terrifying growth. 1、 On chain SWIFT+VIA Now we are crossing USDC between different chains, and I believe the one that everyone uses the most is CIRCLE's built-in CCTP. This is the official native cross chain, and its security exceeds all current cross chain. In the future, cross chain and protocol access between chains will all use it. When the scale of USDC reaches 3 trillion, hundreds of billions will move on the chain every day. Assuming it is 100 billion, even if a fee of 0.01 is charged, it will still be a large scale. Circle is already building the Circle Payment Network, which is essentially a B2B settlement network: cross-border B2B payments, cross-border payroll, supply chain settlements, and a behind the scenes clearing layer for platform based enterprises (e-commerce, payment companies). And this is also a highly probable business, which includes a fee model similar to VISA, plus interface fees, etc., which will be an important supplement to interest income. 2、 On chain foreign exchange trading CIRCLE not only includes USDC, but also compliant on chain euros, as well as Japanese yen and British pound in the future. The foreign exchange market is the world's largest financial market with a daily trading volume of 7.5 trillion yuan. As an issuer, it naturally has the deepest liquidity pool and can earn profits that may exceed the interest rate of US bonds with very small spreads! 3、 Enterprise level services Any enterprise, wallet, or developer platform can currently directly access CIRCLE's Programmable Wallets service to use compliant stablecoin solutions, as well as its Web3 Services to implement a complete set of APIs including wallets, contract deployment, gas abstraction, and more. When USDC is the on chain US dollar standard, all wallets/applications/games/NFT/DeFi that want to integrate US dollar payments have the motivation to connect to Circle's wallet service, because that is the official smoothest path. 4、 Asset Management At present, Circle has cooperated with BlackRock to establish a USYC: chain treasury bond fund, which will be further expanded in the future. Circle provides issuance, settlement, transfer and wallet infrastructure, and takes part of the management fee/platform fee. Provide BlackRock with a package of "fund tokenization infrastructure+compliant wallet+USDC settlement", charging platform usage fees+billing based on transaction volume. 5、 ARC highway toll Arc's positioning: L1 designed for stable currency payment, original support: cross-border payment is almost real-time settlement, token securities, treasury bond, bulk commodities, and the sustainable contract market of stable currency trading pairs. According to convention, there are three types of income, including GAS fees (not necessarily), fees as a verifier, MEV income, etc. ARC is likely to be the preferred chain for institutions, whether it is DTCC or JPMorgan Chase, and it is likely that ARC will be used instead of BASE for important settlements. 6、 Identity infrastructure The more countries and chains covered by USDC, the more it naturally has access to the most on chain USD flow data. Therefore, it can include all these flows and data and provide them to different institutions for charging, such as compliance modules for banks and securities firms; Risk control/API for trading platforms and market makers; Market data products for funds and quantification. This kind of low marginal cost is easy for CIRCLE to do, but the benefits may be significant, especially in terms of compliance. Even cryptocurrency exchanges have huge compliance costs, such as HASHKKEY, where the majority of compliance is focused on. As USDC continues to grow, others no longer need to comply and can directly use its rules - CIRCLE's own compliance costs have become products that can be sold in unlimited quantities. So, in the future, interest income is likely to decrease to below 50%, that is, if the stablecoin scale is 1 trillion yuan, calculated at an interest rate of 3%, the spread income is 30 billion yuan per year, other income is 30 billion yuan per year, operating and distribution costs are calculated at 20 billion yuan, and there is a net profit of 40 billion yuan plus monopolistic leaders. Therefore, according to PE30 calculation, its market value is 1.2 trillion US dollars. For more content, please visit http://dayu.XYZ This article is sponsored and supported by it
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