百萬Eric | Day Trader|Dec 12, 2025 02:54
If you're using Fibonacci to 'precisely find the rebound point,' chances are it will make you lose money.
A lot of people draw retracement lines and only focus on numbers like 0.618 or 0.786, placing orders as soon as the price hits those levels.
But what truly determines whether the market can continue trending is never the ratio itself—it's the market's behavior during the retracement.
There has to be a clear push, smooth rhythm, and almost no hesitation in the upward or downward movement. Otherwise, retracing to any ratio is meaningless.
When the price falls from a high point, the key isn't 'whether it hits 61.8%' but what happens after it reaches the critical zone.
If the price dips and quickly rebounds, the low point stops expanding, the retracement structure is clean, and there’s no continuous downward momentum, it indicates the original trend's strength is still intact.
On the other hand, if the price repeatedly breaks structural levels during the retracement, with each rebound getting weaker and downward momentum becoming stronger—even if the numbers align perfectly with 0.618 or 0.786—it’s just an ordinary downtrend.
So, what Fibonacci truly offers isn’t prediction but a window for observation.
It helps you focus on whether the trend’s retracement is healthy, rather than blindly trusting a specific number.
When the trend is clear, the retracement rhythm is reasonable, and key levels can hold, that’s when the ratios matter. Otherwise, they’re just a set of scale lines on the chart.
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