Jay Powell pushed through a rate cut facing the broadest reservations for arguably any decision during his nearly eight-year tenure, and in doing so, that weaker support implicitly delivered a pointed message to President Trump and his own successor: Waltzing to lower rates isn't going to be as painless as you think. There are essentially three paths to lower rates in 2026: 1) wait for evidence that inflation is coming down (which will take a bit more time at a minimum). 2) see rising evidence that the labor market is falling very ill. If the economy does open the door for the rate cuts Trump badly wants, there is a good chance it will do so by weakening in ways no president would welcome. 3) Short of that, you would need "major change in the composition of who sits around" the Fed's conference room table, said @DianeSwonk And investors are keeping an eye on that: The Trump administration’s efforts in recent months to challenge the institutional norms regarding the Fed are “like the raptors in the first ‘Jurassic Park’ movie testing the fences to see where the electricity was weak,” said Blake Gwinn at RBC Capital Markets. “The moat seems to have held up so far. I’m not saying it will forever.” More on the institutional-political-economic crossroads ahead (gift link): https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/feds-fractured-vote-signals-trouble-ahead-for-future-rate-cuts-d13f183f?st=5BLdqh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink(Nick Timiraos)