This might be the most divided Federal Reserve in history— If it weren’t for the King of Deals (Trump) relentlessly pressuring and pushing, the Fed might not even have been able to reach a consensus on whether to cut interest rates. Where does such a huge divide come from? Generally speaking, adjustments are mainly based on the 2% inflation target—raise rates if it’s above, cut rates if employment is struggling. But the current situation in the U.S. is this: first, inflation has consistently exceeded 2%; second, employment growth data is declining. This contradicts the underlying logic. So, last night’s meeting was all over the place—hawkish one moment, dovish the next. Even all of Powell’s speeches this year have been vague and bizarre, because internally, they’re just as lost in the fog. And don’t forget, the King of Deals has another card to play. For the midterm elections, he mentioned possibly using tariff revenues to distribute money to everyone next year. On the surface, it’s fiscal stimulus, but in reality, it’s like reigniting the inflation engine. If you were Powell, would you dare to raise rates to counter this? Of course not. The only option is to be forced into expanding the balance sheet to backstop everything, turning monetary policy into a mere tool of fiscal policy. So, trying to guess [how many rate cuts there will be] is meaningless. The Fed’s moves next year can be summed up in four words: full of uncertainty!