The curve that truly determines the direction of the cycle is the one you cannot see First Buyers Supply (FBS) is defined as the quantity of BTC purchased and held for the first time. Compared to the "number of new addresses", it can more accurately reflect the current risk preferences of investors and changes in market demand. In this cycle, there is a significantly different market participation structure compared to previous cycles, such as ETF buyers, BTC treasury companies, option market makers, and so on. Therefore, the behavior patterns of investors have also undergone significant changes. When all of these are put on the chain, the data representing new buyer behavior is closely related to the BTC market trend. (Figure 1) As shown in Figure 1, the FBS curve began on October 24th and experienced a rapid decline for over a month, while the BTC price also dropped rapidly. The logic behind this is very easy to understand: The market's concerns about many macro uncertainties, as well as the pessimistic expectations of the traditional 4-year bull bear transition in early trading, have led to a significant decline in new demand. There is not enough purchasing power to support the continuous distribution of long-term profitable chips, and as prices fall, more short-term trapped chips panic and flee - entering a downward spiral of death. To reverse this situation, of course, we still need to start from the top. As the market gradually interprets macro expectations as "positive" or "confidence", new demand will gradually recover and the FBS curve will also bottom out and rebound. As we can see now, there have been signs of gradual stabilization since December 1st. However, the rebound of the FBS curve will not immediately bring about a V-shaped reversal in BTC prices. (Figure 2) We can see from the two cases of July September 24 (Figure 2) and March April 25 (Figure 3) that the FBS curve's rapid decline to gradual stabilization is only the first step, and it will take a relatively long process (in months) to truly confirm the bottoming out and rebound. (Figure 3) During this process, BTC prices often fluctuate up and down, and may even experience a second dip. However, it is this process of shaking and bottoming out that is the most grinding and testing of mentality. When there is a pullback, you will set a lower price for yourself in your heart, and when there is an uptrend, you will worry about missing out on a possible reversal of the market. So, subjective bias is the biggest devil in our traders' hearts! At this point, we should use objective data to point us in the right direction. As long as the data continues to improve, the overall direction will not be wrong. So why bother with temporary fluctuations? ---------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits