DC大于C|Dec 11, 2025 03:04
This morning's meeting was held with an eagle, but not as eagle. Implies the intention of suspending interest rate cuts in the future
Although the Federal Reserve has announced plans to purchase short-term bonds at a rate of $40 billion per month, this is aimed at boosting liquidity. The impact is far greater than interest rate cuts, as I mentioned last night
But the liquidity recovery is not so fast, let's see next January. Adding the possibility of a pause in interest rate cuts, the market is feeling a bit down, so we are currently seeing BTC slowly declining.
He used to say that he would cut interest rates twice in 25 years, but now he has lowered them three times, and he said that interest rate adjustments depend on data. The previous data is still a bit outdated due to the government shutdown
The January interest rate meeting also includes data for November and December. The November release will be announced next week, as mentioned yesterday. Perhaps the volatility will increase next week
That is to say, what we are saying now is only based on previous data, and it can be overturned later to re anticipate the situation of interest rate cuts. And around January, the new chairman will come up to see if the market is listening to the incumbent or the new one
So in my personal opinion, although we are currently testing 90000, this downward trend may not be very significant and should still be above 83-87. Just look at the release of labor force data and inflation for November next week.
Looking back at the general trend, after the first 20% decline and subsequent recovery, the market is still recovering above 80-82. Currently, the possibility of falling below this level is not high, as there is no greater bearish sentiment. It depends on the dominant market sentiment in the future
As for Japan's interest rate hike on the 19th, even if it does, its impact on the market will be limited. It was already anticipated earlier.
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