Adam@Greeks.live
Adam@Greeks.live|Dec 11, 2025 02:51
At the just concluded Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, it was not unexpected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The Fed said that it would restart the purchase of US $40 billion short-term US treasury bond (T-bills). The dove attitude can well supplement the liquidity of the financial system, which is undoubtedly obviously good for the market. But it is too early to bring up QE and restart the bull market now. Christmas and annual delivery are approaching, and in previous years, this is the period with the worst liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, with low market activity and limited motivation to restart the bull market. From the data of cryptocurrency options, it can be seen that more than 50% of the options positions have been accumulated by the end of December. The maximum pain point for BTC is at the integer level of $100000, and the maximum pain point for ETH is at $3200. The main term IV is showing a downward trend this month, and the market's expectations for volatility this month are gradually decreasing. It is worth noting that Skew has experienced a sustained negative bias this month, with Put prices significantly higher than Call prices in the same Delta. This is mainly due to two reasons: firstly, the market is stable, and the hedging strategy has once again become mainstream, causing Call prices to be artificially lowered; secondly, the recent weakness in the cryptocurrency market has led to more traders using put options to guard against a decline. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently relatively weak, with poor liquidity at the end of the year and low market sentiment. The most mainstream view in the options market is a slow decline, but at the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the possibility of a reversal caused by sudden market gains (although the likelihood is relatively low)
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