Phyrex|Dec 10, 2025 15:14
Are the S&P 500 and Bitcoin more profitable for intraday trading or more profitable for holding positions?
The truth is really simple, from 1993 to today, all the gains of the S&P 500 have occurred after hours, not during hours.
In the long term, there is almost no profit in the intraday market because noise, hedging, and high frequency have consumed all the momentum. The real rise comes from macroeconomic news after the close, corporate performance, repurchase orders, and cross market position adjustments.
For the vast majority of buddies, holding is far better than trading, and data is the most intuitive. If they keep moving in and out, stopping losses, chasing gains and losses during trading every day, they will get almost the worst return in 32 years. Instead, they will maintain the simplest holding strategy and obtain the maximum return.
The data shows that:
If you buy at the opening of the US stock market every day and sell at the closing, the total return can be 24.6%.
If you buy at closing and sell at opening every day, the total return can be 1152%.
If you buy from the beginning and get it now, the total return rate is 1460%.
Interestingly, what if we exchange the S&P 500 for BTC?
The answer is similar to what many friends think, the holding yield is nearly 31 million times, and the continuous trading yield is about 5.63 million times. Holding it is still the most profitable way.
Data is more useful than words. Every day, someone tells you that buying high and selling low earns the most, but no one can always buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point, but holding it is very simple. The S&P 500 is like this, so is Bitcoin, the only difference is that you don't believe it.
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