The latest US stock capital flow has shown significant structural changes. Retail investors who have been buying on dips for 12 consecutive weeks suddenly turned around before and after entering Black Friday, and have been selling net continuously in the past 1 to 4 weeks, and the selling is very decisive. It can be almost confirmed that the retreat behavior is triggered by the combination of holiday season cash demand and short-term macro uncertainty. Hedge funds have a neutral attitude and have been reducing their positions slightly in the past few weeks, clearly waiting for the policy path of the FOMC in December. The only sustained bullish force is institutional investors, who have maintained stable buying levels in both stocks and ETFs, indicating that they view the pullback as a window for building positions next year and have not been affected by short-term market fluctuations. The direction of the market will depend on the repricing of monetary policy, especially the direction of the dot plot towards the 2026 interest rate path, which will directly determine whether institutions will continue to increase their positions, whether hedge funds will establish directional positions, and whether retail investors have the opportunity to return to the market. However, BTC still highly overlaps with technology stocks in the US stock market, and the trend of technology stocks can continue to drive the rise and fall of Bitcoin. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits