The last interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve this year is about to be held. The interest rate decision will be announced at 3am Beijing time on December 11th. As 25BP is almost a certainty, the market's real focus has shifted to Powell's speech after the meeting and the policy path revealed in the dot matrix. Due to the previous US government shutdown resulting in a large amount of missing macro data, coupled with the influence of "Shadow Federal Reserve Chairman" Hassett, the market game at this meeting is far more complex than before. At present, there are not only partisan differences within the Federal Reserve, but also a confrontation on the policy line: one side advocates "protecting employment" (continuing to cut interest rates), while the other side insists on "fighting inflation" (suspending interest rate cuts). The game between these two factions is expected to be reflected in the wording of Powell's press conference. The current market appears calm on the surface, but in reality, there are hidden currents surging. This is not just a simple interest rate cut, but a transition and collision between the old and new monetary systems, accompanied by personnel changes from "Powell economics" (data dependence, anti inflation) to "Hassett/Benson economics" (political orientation, strong growth, 3-3-3 goals). The most noteworthy point tonight is that even if Powell sends signals of hawkish interest rate cuts, the market may choose to ignore it due to its "lame duck" situation. Investors may prefer to believe that the incoming Hassett will implement aggressive easing policies. Therefore, whether the market still sells Powell's account will become the core observation point and the focus of the game. Let's wait and see whether it's a case of 'tea has cooled down before people leave' or 'county officials are better off managing now'. If Powell's hawkish remarks are ignored by the market, then the market will no longer value Powell's words in the next six months. On the other hand, Powell may have anticipated these things, so he may lower his profile to cater to the market and prevent himself from being slapped in the face, so as to end the game with dignity. If the market still values Powell's hawkish warning, compared to before, Hassett can step forward and engage in dovish hedging this time, so tonight's overall situation may be relatively stable, after all, no matter which plan, there will be successors to take over. However, what the current market really needs to worry about may not be whether there is an immediate interest rate cut, but rather the sustained surge in long-term interest rates. From a fiscal perspective, administrative forces undoubtedly hope to lower short-term interest rates, but market forces are constantly pushing up long-term interest rates. Against the backdrop of global productivity development driving changes in production relations, developed economies such as Europe, America, and Japan are simultaneously facing the dilemma of long bonds being sold off and yields rising. These economies face a paradox: the more aggressive the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the higher the long-term interest rates may actually rise, causing the real economy (such as housing and corporate bonds) to actually feel the pain of "interest rate hikes". If Powell is dovish (in conjunction with interest rate cuts): the stock market may briefly rise, but the bond market may fall (yields soar), as this confirms the Federal Reserve's blind eye to inflation. Subsequently, the rapidly rising yield may actually drag down the stock market, especially the technology sector that is sensitive to interest rates. If Powell is hawkish (emphasizing inflation): it may trigger a stock market decline in the short term, but the bond market may stabilize, as this indicates that the Federal Reserve still regards controlling inflation as a policy bottom line. In the long run, this may actually be a more favorable outcome for the healthy development of the market.