AIA Human vs. AI Round 4—this time I’m siding with Chain Research Institute’s teacher. His judgment aligns better with the current policy logic of the Fed. Powell is now using the classic “dovish rate cuts, hawkish rhetoric” balancing act. Employment data is indeed weakening, so rate cuts are necessary to protect the job market. Inflation remains sticky—3.2% is still far above the 2% target. Fiscal stimulus expectations (tax cuts + infrastructure) are adding more inflationary pressure. In this environment, the Fed can only be hawkish in words but dovish in action. The market’s craving for stealth QE is understandable, but the timing isn’t right. For the Fed to start T-bill repos, two conditions must be met: Banks face insufficient reserves, leading to liquidity stress. The risk of economic recession rises significantly. Neither condition is met right now.