BANKS’ EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FED DECISION MORGAN STANLEY Now expects cuts in Dec, Jan, and April to reach 3.0–3.25%. • Statement to signal risk-management cuts are done. • Several dissents expected. • No major change to dots. JPMORGAN Also expects a “hawkish cut.” • Statement to hint fewer cuts ahead. • Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027), possibly higher longer-run. • Future: Final cut in January. BANK OF AMERICA Expects a 25 bp cut plus balance-sheet actions. • Statement to raise bar for further cuts. • About three dissents expected. • Next cuts: June and July. DEUTSCHE BANK Says stronger growth + sticky inflation mean caution on more cuts. • Statement to move more hawkish. • Dots in line with 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2028). • Next cut: September. UBS Sees a strong majority backing a 25 bp cut. • Statement could shift toward balanced risks, though not baseline. • Expects 2+ dissents, mainly from Musalem and Schmid. • Inflation forecasts slightly lower; dots similar to September. • Powell likely stresses data dependence and being closer to neutral. COMMERZBANK Sees a 25 bp cut, but with many dissents possible. • Powell likely pairs the cut with hawkish messaging. • Only one more cut before his term ends; more easing starting June under a new chair. GOLDMAN SACHS Supports a cut due to a softening labor market. • Statement likely to stress higher bar for future cuts. • Forecast revisions: higher GDP, slightly lower inflation. CITI Expects a hawkish cut. • Dots mostly unchanged. • Powell won’t rule out Jan or March cuts but will avoid dovish tone. WELLS FARGO Expects the Fed to keep moving toward a more neutral stance. • Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027–28), 3.0% long run. • Statement may see 3–4 dissents; softer guidance. • Outlook: 25 bp cuts in Q1 and Q2.(*Walter Bloomberg)