Tether's biological son fell 60% as soon as he appeared—— @Stable was originally seen as the least promising new star in the stablecoin market, but on the first day of its mainnet launch, it encountered a crisis of trust and liquidity. As L1, which is deeply incubated by Tether/Bitfinex and uses USDT as its native gas, Stable originally carried the narrative of a "stablecoin infrastructure revolution". Before going online, the market sentiment was almost fanatical: the two rounds of pre deposit scale exceeded 1.3 billion US dollars, 25000 addresses participated, and the probability model provided by Polymarket showed that the probability of its FDV exceeding 2 billion US dollars was as high as 85%. But the reality is that the low price, fierce competition from giant whales, and the collective absence of CEX have made its start far inferior to the once popular Plasma. TGE opened at only $0.046 and then fell all the way, hitting as low as $0.015- FDV fell below $1.7 billion, with extremely thin liquidity. Even more deadly is the controversy over the "rat warehouse": before the first round of deposit opening, a giant whale wallet entered the market hundreds of millions of dollars in advance, and the project party directly opened the second round without public explanation. This behavior, which contradicts the core values of transparency and trustworthiness, has caused cracks in Stable's brand narrative. From the perspective of technology and vision, Stable's positioning is not bad: USDT, as a native gas, greatly reduces payment friction and is suitable for institutions and high-frequency scenarios. StableBFT consensus+EVM compatibility - pursuing a high throughput, low latency on chain settlement experience. Tether/Bitfinex direct endorsement - capital, resources, and brand are all in demand. But the hidden issues are equally evident: The governance token STANLE does not capture network value and is only used for staking and governance, lacking early demand support. The total amount is 100 billion -50% of which is allocated to the team and investors, releasing heavy pressure in the long run. Not listed on Binance, Coinbase, or Upbit, resulting in insufficient user reach. The greater challenge comes from the competitive landscape: Polygon, Tron, Solana have already established network effects in the payment scene; Circle's Arc, Stripe supported Tempo and other emerging chains are targeting the "stablecoin settlement layer" with precision. Stable can only gain a foothold by rapidly driving institutional integration and developer ecosystem between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026. In the current era of fierce competition in stablecoin infrastructure, whether it can turn the tide will not depend on narrative, but on execution - whether it can truly turn the network effect of USDT into its own network effect within six months.