Here's why I don't talk about 'direction' If you become overly fixated on “direction” or “sectors” in investing, you easily fall into a cognitive bias. On the surface, the perceived certainty of a sector seems to reduce judgment costs, leading people to believe that simply betting on the right sector will capture structural opportunities. But the reality is, before a project gains significant attention, it's often difficult to categorize accurately—even the team itself may not be clear on which category they belong to. Sectors themselves are retrospective narratives—labels retroactively applied by the market after a batch of successful projects emerges. Therefore, when a sector has clear boundaries, established narratives, and defined upstream/downstream structures, it signifies that the sector has already passed its early stage. A clearly defined track also signifies its entry into a consensus-dense zone, where increased capital begins to flow in and the upside is significantly compressed. In other words, if investors treat tracks as their starting point, they become followers of market consensus—chasing residual opportunities along paths already defined and proven successful by others. The true “direction,” however, often resides in areas overlooked by the market, unnamed, or even seemingly chaotic and ill-defined.(Jiawei)