Looking at all historical data, whenever long-term holders capitulate, it usually corresponds to higher BTC price ranges. However, what's slightly different is that in the first four cycles, the capitulation of long-term holders coincided with an increase in exchange reserves, meaning true long-term holders were selling. Their selling often marked an exit after higher prices. This data has never been wrong in history. Whenever long-term holders start selling in large quantities, it usually corresponds to Bitcoin's historical peaks. But this cycle is completely different. Although long-term holders are selling, exchange reserves are also decreasing, indicating that those truly selling may not be long-term holders. Instead, exchange reserves are being depleted. So, for the market right now, it seems that long-term holders are continuing to hold, while exchange reserves are being consumed due to sell-offs. This is one of the reasons for the decrease in long-term holders. Historically, when this data appeared, BTC prices would rise, but now it's the opposite. This leaves only two possibilities: 1. This data no longer follows historical patterns. 2. This data is in the same red zone as in 2021. A similar situation occurred in 2021, during the major crash on March 12 (312大跌). It wasn't until July that the market began to gradually rebound and rise. The current situation might follow the same pattern. Bitget VIP, lower fees, bigger perks!