PANews丨APP全面升级|12月 08, 2025 06:50
When the cryptocurrency market experiences a "stock price+coin price" double kill,
Cryptocurrency treasury companies, once seen as the engine of a bull market, collectively fell silent at the most opportune moment to buy at the bottom - this is not an emotional issue, but a structural failure: they are not "unwilling to buy", but "unable to buy".
In the past two years, Strategy and other DAT companies have built the myth of "infinite bullets" by relying on convertible bonds and ATM issuance:
When the stock price is higher than the holding value (mNAV>1), selling stocks=exchanging dollars out of thin air, and then continuing to add BTC/ETH. However, since November, the mNAV of almost all treasury companies has fallen below 1 across the board, selling stocks is equivalent to selling assets at a discount, and the flywheel has completely come to a halt - billions of dollars in "ammunition" are locked in the books and cannot be cashed into buying orders.
The situation of Strategy is most representative:
It holds over $30 billion in ATM issuable capacity, but is unable to use it due to a discounted stock price, and is forced to raise $1.44 billion at a discounted price for interest and dividend reserves. This model has been adopted by most DAT companies, so the collective disappearance of bottom copying is not a coincidence, but a systematic constraint.
From the perspective of the entire industry, the "nominal firepower" is still astonishing (with a total of tens of billions of dollars in cash and ATM), but only a few can truly make a move.
A few exceptions, such as BitMine, still have $880 million in cash on their account and have continuously increased their holdings in anticipation of ETH bottoming out. They also plan to build an ETH staking business through MAVAN, using the generated annualized income to cover debt costs. CleanSpark and Metaplanet are also maintaining their pace of increasing holdings through convertible bonds and mortgage financing.
This trend is significant:
The treasury model is transitioning from "leverage expansion" to "interest seeking survival".
In an environment where stock price premiums disappear and large-scale refinancing is restricted, ETH and Solana assets that can generate stable cash flow are more favored, while BTC, which lacks native returns, gradually becomes passive.
The 'battle of trapped beasts' in encrypted treasury reveals a cruel reality:
The so-called 'infinite bullets' have always existed only in a periodic manner; When the flywheel stops, Caiku Company cannot act as a bottom fishing force and can only wait for the market to recover.
What truly determines whether they can fire again is not the will, but the market itself.
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