The most important macro event of the year is just around the corner: The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (December 9-10). Even though the outcome is already clear, the real market game is just beginning. The market is widely expecting a 25bp rate cut, but in reality, this result itself is already hard to price in anymore. How this rate decision will influence the trajectory of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal disagreement and the tone set for next year. The internal disagreements this time might be more intense than expected. The forced compromise by the opposition doesn’t equate to a unified rate cut and liquidity injection. At least in my view, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. Opposition impacts market sentiment, and since crypto relies heavily on sentiment-driven liquidity, a divided rate cut may not necessarily be a positive for the crypto space. Powell is very likely to deliver this 25bp cut, but he absolutely won’t dare to appear too relaxed in front of the public. He has to use stricter language to manage expectations for future rate cuts or clearly tell the market that there’s no "autopilot mode" for rate cuts. The entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management move. A rate cut is dovish, but if it’s not obviously dovish, it means a volatile market for crypto. Risk markets want to see certainty in a new cycle, but the Fed and Powell are essentially treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-off move while continuously amplifying future uncertainty. This will likely lead to a scenario where every rate cut (including next year’s) results in a market rally upon the good news, followed by a pullback during the subsequent volatility. If you’re experienced enough, you can try shorting $BTC or $ETH a few hours after the rate cut.