MORGAN STANLEY: LOOKING MORE LIKE A DECEMBER RATE CUT Morgan Stanley now expects a 25bp rate cut at the December Fed meeting, citing the Fed’s recent communication and market pricing. The bank says there will likely be dissenting votes, and Chair Powell may pair the cut with language signaling that future moves will remain data-dependent. By the January meeting, most key 4Q data on jobs, spending, and inflation will be in hand. Morgan Stanley still expects additional cuts in January and April. The firm noted that early Black Friday spending looked “better than feared,” but historically these figures don’t predict November–December retail sales. Higher prices likely boosted nominal spending, meaning real consumer demand may be softer. Overall, Morgan Stanley anticipates slower real consumption growth in Q4.(*Walter Bloomberg)