Japan's interest rate hike vs US interest rate cut: December global currency war tears apart Bitcoin! Is the cryptocurrency market brewing a century bottom or a new round of bloody storm, with the wave of miners shutting down, the shadow of MSTR bursting positions, sovereign fund bottom fishing, VC frenzy sweeping, and public sales shining in seconds? Too long to watch version (TL; DR): The current decline in the cryptocurrency market is mainly due to the combination of three factors: the probability of both Japan and the United States raising interest rates is extremely high, and funds dare not move; Miners were forced to shut down and sell due to high electricity prices and policy changes; The sharp decline in MSTR profits has triggered market panic, and the DAT mechanism has been trampled. Although there is a lot of short-term pressure, bottom funds are constantly entering the market; Sovereign funds are taking advantage of the decline to buy Bitcoin, VCs are crazily scanning ETH, the popularity of Public Sale is not decreasing, and project parties are starting to crack down on scientists. Overall, short-term fluctuations continue, but the safety cushion for long-term funds has become increasingly thick; At present, the market is still in a volatile situation. Last night, there was a big market crash, with the lowest falling to around 90800 and then quickly rebounding above 9w2. There is still a lot of macro uncertainty now, with both Japan and the United States raising interest rates in mid December. Therefore, many funds are now adopting a wait-and-see attitude. After all, these two monetary policies have a significant impact on the currency market and have opposite effects. Polymarket now predicts that the probability of Japan raising interest rates is 90%, and the probability of the United States lowering interest rates is 93%, which can be considered as a needle in the haystack. The Bank of America believes that Japan will raise interest rates every six months after the December rate hike, which means it will raise interest rates twice next year. Although the United States has applied for unemployment last week, it is still uncertain. The number of people in the gold market has decreased below expectations, but now the shadow Federal Reserve's Hassett has begun to dominate public opinion. He believes that there will be a rate cut in December, and currently CME expects to cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. I don't know how well Hassett and Trump control the Federal Reserve. If they do cut interest rates at this frequency, I'm afraid it will just hedge against the negative interest rate hike in Japan. Then the currency market will not be better next year. If Hassett follows Bernanke's example, then the fourth year of Trump will definitely be the fourth year of the explosion of financial assets. After Bernanke came to power, he reduced the interest rate from 5.25% to 0.25%. In fact, Trump shouted at Powell every day, so this is the most perfect expectation for the currency market. I think the recent analysis by JPMorgan Chase on the reasons for the decline in the cryptocurrency market is quite reasonable. He believes that while the price of Bitcoin is falling, high electricity prices are causing the market to face selling pressure from high cost miners. This matter is related to the policy of China's 13 ministries and commissions last weekend. I remember that there have been rumors from last year to this year that encryption will be lifted in China. In fact, many mining machines that have been shut down or sent overseas have been restarted in China, and the policy of the 13 ministries and commissions directly sentenced them to death. This part of the computing power should have been shut down in the past few days. Therefore, the difficulty of mining has decreased significantly recently. Generally speaking, the decrease in computing power is good for miners, but during the period of currency price decline, it will cause many miners to sell their products and cause selling pressure, especially when many mining machines are close to shutting down and the currency price is high. Those high electricity miners cannot withstand it. This happens every bear market; Another reason for the decline in coin prices is that the profit contraction of the micro strategy Mstr is too severe. Compared to the high point, it has now earned more than 10 billion yuan, but its current profit is only about 1 billion yuan. If it falls again, DAT will be completely wiped out. Therefore, the pressure on MSTR is quite high, with only 1.4 billion yuan in dividends and interest reserve funds, and the statement that "if mnav is below 1, BTC will be considered for sale". Therefore, the market has actually experienced a wave of panic, with DAT fleeing and retail investors trampling. The market is like a shark in the sea. Once it smells the bloody smell, it will rush over. Mstr is now a fresh meat bleeding, which is why no one has been making new dat recently. Even though the coin price is higher than the previous round of dat peak period, there is no one making new dat now. Much lower, just like above, dat and mining both have a positive spiral effect when the coin price rises, and there will be a liquidation crisis when it falls. Tom Lee's toxic milk is here again. He's smarter this time, not to mention the specific time, but to say that within a few months, the pie will reach $250000 and Ethereum will reach $12000. He also said that VC has started calculating the market to sales ratio of value storage assets, which is a bottom signal. Although the bottom determines the brain, this product is indeed a combination of knowledge and action. Last week, I bought 100000 ETH and today I increased my holdings by 40000 ETH. As long as the funds are unlimited, I will definitely be able to speculate until the end. The CEO of BlackRock revealed the inside story again. He said last night that some sovereign funds bought Bitcoin during the recent decline of Bitcoin. He explained that sovereign funds are super large funds established by the state with its own money, similar to the purchase by a certain government, which is equivalent to strategic reserves. This kind of operation was quite common last year. After all, Trump waved flags and shouted loudly. This year, especially after 1011, it is still rare. The advantage of buying sovereign funds is that they are generally not sold. El Salvador, a small country, is very stable, and has been buying again. In addition, BlackRock added that many sovereign funds are still waiting to see, that is to say, when the fall to a certain extent, there will be a country to save them. Now the security mat of the currency market is very high of. Last night, the @ humidifi three-stage public sales, which had been squatting for a long time, was blocked by scientists in a sub second, with almost no real people participating. This is already a response from the official, and it is the most satisfying thing. The scientist qualification will be cancelled directly without a refund. If all project parties have such courage in the future, it would be better to have fewer scientists and let users with real needs buy in @Humidifi has officially announced the reopening of public fundraising next Monday. Everyone, hurry up and prepare 1000u to your wallet. The competition is fierce, but scientists have been deterred this time and should have a chance to grab it. In addition, the ICO of @ aztecnetwork has already received 1.85 million ETH, with a 90% probability of exceeding 2 million predicted on Poly. Currently, the FDV is 410 million, which is not a low market value. However, compared to the valuation invested by VC, it is still about 75% lower. At that time, aztec was indeed a king level, but unfortunately it did not release coins at a good time. Now, several zk and strk in the same track are only about 1 billion, so the space is not large; And then there's @ infinex, which is worth 1 billion FDV if unlocked 100% TGE. Its market value is even larger, and the current market for wealth management is not secure. In other words, the previous two big brothers XPL and Megaeth are too popular to get involved in. I wouldn't look at this type of project at the second level; Zama is also a big truck, and this is also a privacy public chain. The last round of financing was in June, with a valuation of 1 billion yuan and a total of 6500w raised. After carefully examining the auction method of this project, it is a blind auction, and I think it is quite suitable for the current market. It is possible to set a low price. Dutch auctions are best played during times of poor market conditions, as it is easy to pick up loopholes. This project depends on its popularity. If it is not lively until the end, I will rush in.