Most institutions believe that the market structure of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets is similar to that of the first quarter of 2022. 1. The proportion and scale of BTC losses remain the same as in the first quarter of 2022 Similar to 2022, BTC is going through a critical zone of whether it will officially turn bearish, and the number of trapped stocks is rapidly increasing. According to on chain data, over 25% of the total supply of BTC is already in a floating loss state, with approximately 5-7 million BTC in a loss state, The highest BTC floating loss is 7.1 million, which is almost identical to the beginning of 2022. If the defense line continues to fall and falls, at least BTC will soon enter a deeper bear market stage. 2. The flow of funds has become very weak The current monthly inflow of BTC is only 8.6 billion US dollars, which has significantly decreased compared to 64.3 billion US dollars in July this year. Of course, the good news is that it has not yet turned negative inflow (outflow). In fact, the current situation is similar to the funding situation in 2022. The entry of funds has not completely disappeared, but incremental funds are no longer able to support the high valuation in the early stage. 3. Long term holders are still selling for profit, but the profit margin is sharply shrinking Some institutions believe that it is currently a digestion period for BTC's bear market in the second half, where long-term funds continue to sell while profit margins continue to decline, similar to 2022, but long-term funds have not yet entered the stage of being trapped. 4. The impact of macro and liquidity is rapidly increasing, similar to the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, except that at that time it affected OTC and currently it affects spot ETFs. 5. The market has entered a chronic deleveraging stage As time goes by, the long leverage is gradually cleared, but it is difficult for the market and news to see extreme long liquidation waves again. The funding rate fluctuates around 0, and the market directionality decreases, showing a trend towards deep bear development. 6. The completion of the structural ebb of altcoins preceded the bloodbath of BTC In November alone, the Memecoins sector, which drove the market, retreated about 66% from its high point this year, and counterfeit projects entered a stage of no capital inflow, with counterfeit projects entering a phase of market washing and survival. It is worth noting that even though the current market structure is similar to Q1 2022, BTC and knockoff markets have a demand channel of spot ETFs. In addition, due to the lack of 3AC time bombs, the systemic risk of on chain credit/lending is much smaller than in 2022. At the same time, the macro level is in a cycle of interest rate cuts, and macro liquidity may not necessarily be poor, so a major collapse may not occur. The cryptocurrency market is likely to be in a low volatility and bearish state, which may last until the end of 2026.