little shrimp🐳|12月 05, 2025 06:29
2. Some trends are indeed happening, but the pace of realization is much slower than expected.
Take the trend of 'trading U.S. stocks on-chain' that started gaining traction this year: major exchanges are introducing U.S. stock trading, but the current situation isn’t about 'bringing U.S. stock users into the crypto space.' Instead, it’s more about crypto users naturally gravitating toward U.S. stocks.
Narratives align, mindsets sync—people generally assume BTC itself is a high-beta tech stock, and the entire crypto space is essentially a submarket of U.S. stocks.
3. Back to the market itself: the second dip a few days ago was indeed a second dip, but at the time, there wasn’t enough courage to keep adding positions. The aftermath of November’s suffocating sell-off still lingers.
One thing that’s become more apparent in the recent market action: ETH is showing significantly more strength than BTC. Positive catalysts are approaching, and the structure is shifting.
Another noticeable change: the market is getting 'smarter.' The duration of negative funding rates is getting shorter and shorter, even during rebound phases.
Especially when looking at coin-denominated funding rates compared to the past—negative rates no longer necessarily mean 'oversold rebound.' The market’s risk premium structure is quietly being rewritten.
4. About ETH:
The previous assessment of ETH still holds true: it’s just been recognized by mainstream capital but is still in a high-volatility phase, much like BTC in its early days. Big spikes and drops are completely normal.
But give it one cycle, or even less than a full cycle, and ETH will eventually reach the current state of BTC—where a 10% move is enough to make people shout 'bull market is back.' For now, it’s still in the gap period before its value narrative and major capital involvement fully take shape.
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