[SBF Posts About Former Cellmate's Pardon, Prediction Markets Still See Low Probability of His Release] On December 2, former U.S. President Donald Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH), who was serving a sentence in New York for cocaine trafficking charges. FTX founder SBF and JOH were once cellmates. Recently, SBF posted on the X platform, stating that he had helped JOH prepare for trial, review evidence, and described JOH as 'the most innocent prisoner.' Some speculate that SBF's move is intended to support Trump's pardon policies and pave the way for his own pardon or sentence reduction. However, prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of Trump pardoning SBF in 2025 remains around 2%, with traders generally believing that SBF's chances of release, given his involvement in an approximately $8 billion fraud case, are extremely low.